The cryptocurrency landscape could see a dramatic shift if Donald Trump reclaims the White House, particularly for Solana (SOL) and its prospects for an exchange-traded fund (ETF). While a SOL ETF seems distant under the current Biden administration, market experts suggest that a Trump presidency might accelerate the timeline significantly.

According to a research note from market-making firm GSR, a Trump administration could potentially upend the established playbook for launching crypto ETFs. Traditionally, the process takes years and begins with the introduction of federally regulated futures contracts - a step Solana has yet to take. However, Trump's return to office might usher in a more permissive regulatory environment for digital assets.

"It may even be probable" that a Trump administration would implement regulations allowing for the launch of "myriad spot digital asset ETFs," the GSR note stated. In this scenario, Solana, as one of the largest cryptocurrencies behind Bitcoin and Ethereum, could be uniquely positioned to benefit.

The potential impact on SOL's price could be substantial. While Bitcoin's value more than doubled in the months surrounding its spot ETF launch, GSR's analysis suggests that Solana's gains could be even more dramatic. In their "base case" scenario, assuming SOL attracts just 5% of the inflows that Bitcoin did, its price could more than triple. This conservative estimate is based on historical data showing Solana investment products received about 5% of Bitcoin's inflows between 2021 and late 2023.

Even more bullish is GSR's "blue sky" scenario, where SOL could see up to 14% of Bitcoin's ETF inflows. Under these circumstances, Solana's price might skyrocket by nearly nine times its current value. While these figures represent only a fraction of Bitcoin's total inflows, they could have a much more significant impact on SOL's price due to its smaller market cap.

It's important to note that these projections hinge entirely on the approval and launch of a Solana ETF. Under the current regulatory framework, SOL faces significant hurdles. Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana lacks a history of trading in federally regulated futures markets - a key step in the traditional path to ETF approval.

However, the cryptocurrency landscape is ever-evolving. VanEck, a prominent asset manager known for its forward-thinking approach in the crypto space, recently filed for a Solana ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This move, while ambitious under current conditions, could position VanEck at the forefront if regulatory winds shift in favour of broader crypto ETF approvals.

Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital assets research, argues that SOL functions similarly to other digital commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum. "It is utilized to pay for transaction fees and computational services on the blockchain," Sigel stated, making a case for Solana's commodity status - a crucial distinction in the regulatory landscape.