Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) saw a 12.8% surge from March 24 to March 26, followed by a downward correction to $186. Despite this, investors are optimistic, citing increased activities like memecoins and airdrops on the Solana network as potential factors to maintain SOL’s positive momentum and possibly push its price above $200.

However, the broader cryptocurrency market faces vulnerabilities, notably after Bitcoin failed to sustain above $71,000 on March 26, indicating waning investor confidence, particularly regarding outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Further reduction of institutional investors' stakes in listed crypto assets could dim the outlook for SOL and other alternative coins.

Additionally, recent legal actions by the U.S. Justice Department against KuCoin exchange and its founders, accused of offering unregulated derivatives contracts, could add pressure on SOL’s valuation. Nevertheless, SOL's price tends to respond positively to growth within the Solana ecosystem, with the success of Solana SPL tokens and the rise of memecoins attracting new projects and sustaining demand for the SOL token.

A 30-day analysis of the Solana network indicates significant increases in user activity and volume, challenging a bearish stance on SOL. Solana has narrowed the gap with its competitor, the BNB Chain, with notable growth in decentralized application (DApp) volumes and active addresses.

Examining derivatives trading metrics, particularly the behavior of perpetual contracts, suggests strong leverage demand for bullish positions on SOL. Despite SOL's inability to surpass $195 on March 26, the inclination toward leveraged long positions remains robust.

Furthermore, analyzing stablecoin demand in China, particularly the premium on USD Coin (USDC) transactions, indicates sustained interest in cryptocurrencies within the region, supporting the optimistic outlook for SOL’s derivatives markets. Although the timing of SOL breaching the $200 threshold remains uncertain, current on-chain and derivatives metrics suggest a healthy market environment.