Bitcoin's price movements over the past decade have been characterized by alternating periods of bear and bull markets.

Traditionally, the initiation of a bull market is attributed to Bitcoin halving events, while the two years leading up to each halving are typically dominated by bearish trends.

However, the current cycle has deviated from this pattern. Beginning in mid-2023, the recent surge was initially fueled by speculation surrounding the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Following the launch of these products in early 2024, Bitcoin surpassed its previous all-time high from 2021, reaching nearly $74,000, marking the first time a new peak was reached before a halving event.

This surge was attributed to the legitimization of Bitcoin as a mainstream investment asset, as major corporations like BlackRock and Fidelity entered the market with these ETFs. While demand tapered off somewhat in recent weeks, Bitcoin's price remained within the $60,000 to $70,000 range.

Furthermore, rumors suggest that the US Federal Reserve may lower interest rates later this year, a move typically seen as favorable for riskier assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Despite diminishing returns from halving events over time, the recent halving has reduced the daily production of new Bitcoin to around 450 BTC, significantly less than the average accumulation rate by ETFs, whales, and retail investors.

According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is currently in the midst of its ongoing bull cycle. He noted that bitcoin's actual market capitalization is increasing faster than its realized capitalization, a trend typically lasting about two years, indicating that the current bull run may conclude within the next 11 months or so.