Donald Trump is among the few U.S. presidents who won the electoral college despite losing the popular vote. If prediction markets are correct, he will achieve this feat again in the upcoming presidential election. This phenomenon has sparked debate about the role of the electoral college in American democracy.

Polymarket's contract shows that President Joe Biden has a 56% chance of winning the popular vote, with "yes" shares trading at 56 cents. Each share pays out $1 if the prediction comes true and zero if it does not. On the other hand, Trump has a 36% chance of winning the popular vote. Traders have bet $36 million on this question, making it Polymarket's fourth-largest market by volume.

The largest market by far is the one on who will win the presidency, with a record $182 million of bets placed. Here, Trump is the clear favorite, with a 57% chance of winning versus 35% for Biden. Under a regulatory settlement, Polymarket blocks U.S. users, so its traders are presumably making predictions from afar. PredictIt, a more traditional U.S. election betting site, gives Trump a 52% chance of winning the presidency and Biden 47%.

The Electoral College was conceived at the Constitutional Convention of 1787. It is designed to balance the influence of populous and less populous states, ensure smaller states have a voice in the election, and prevent a few large states from dominating the outcome. The popular vote, which carries no electoral weight, is simply the proportion of votes cast for each candidate.

The college consists of 538 electors. A majority of 270 electors' votes is required to win the presidency. Each state has the same number of electors as it does members in its Congressional delegation: one for each member of the House of Representatives (the number of House members is proportional to a state's population) plus two Senators. Critics of this time-honored system call it undemocratic, while its defenders argue that it is a bulwark protecting the rights of the minority against potential tyranny of the majority.

If the Polymarket bettors are right and Trump does win the electoral college while losing the popular vote, "Not My President" rallies will be back in vogue. This scenario would reignite debates about the electoral college's role in American democracy and whether it truly represents the will of the people. As the presidential election approaches, all eyes will be on the electoral college map, watching to see if prediction markets' forecasts come to pass.

In conclusion, the electoral college system is a complex and controversial aspect of American democracy. While it has been a part of the country's political landscape for over two centuries, its role in the modern era is still hotly debated. As the presidential election approaches, the nation waits with bated breath to see if the electoral college will once again play a decisive role in the outcome. Will the prediction markets' forecasts come true, or will the electoral college surprise us once again? Only time will tell.