Following Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust experiencing significant outflows post its transition to a spot Bitcoin ETF, the potential conversion to an Ethereum ETF might unfold differently. Speculation suggests a 75% chance of approval for the long-awaited Ethereum ETF by May 23, as per Bloomberg analysts.

In contrast to the Bitcoin Mini Trust, which launched post its ETF equivalent, Grayscale has disclosed detailed information about the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ahead of any potential ETH ETF approval. Recently, Grayscale filed a registration statement for the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (proposed ticker symbol "ETH") and an Information Statement detailing how the existing Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) would seed the new mini-trust.

Grayscale anticipates a net positive impact on current ETHE shareholders, maintaining exposure to Ethereum with lower fees averaged across both products. May 23 marks a crucial deadline for SEC approval, alongside the effectiveness declaration of ETHE’s Form S-3 and ETH’s Form S-1 before listing on NYSE Arca. Grayscale assures current ETHE holders no action is needed before the spin-off.

The launch of the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust alongside ETHE could lead to fewer outflows due to lower fees and no required investor action, unlike the Bitcoin ETF launch, where GBTC saw significant outflows due to the absence of a similar mini-trust. GBTC's 1.5% expense ratio, considerably higher than other issuers' 0.20%, has been a major factor contributing to its significant outflows.

However, amendments to the filings, such as the removal of Ethereum staking under management, may suggest significant outflows are still possible.