The use of AI drones in military conflicts has far-reaching consequences for global energy supplies and markets. Due to their low production cost and the potential for causing significant damage, drones have become a valuable asset in modern warfare. The simplicity and affordability of this technology also raise concerns about non-state actors challenging more advanced state forces, creating a global challenge. John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital, expressed his concerns, stating,

"The situation could worsen because we depend on Russian energy supplies reaching the global market, allowing other non-Russian supplies to be distributed elsewhere."

In addition to impacting energy supplies, drones can also pose a threat to global sea trade. This could affect both oil exporters and importers, particularly major players like China and India.

With tensions escalating in the Middle East and Ukraine's drone attacks, the global energy supply may face significant disruptions. The US crude oil market has already seen a 20% increase year-to-date, and gasoline futures have rallied nearly 33% during the same period.

Russia's commitment to reduce oil production by 471,000 barrels per day in the current quarter to fulfill OPEC obligations will further strain the Biden administration. The US government is already under immense public pressure to support Israel's conflict in Palestine (Gaza) and allocate larger funds for the war, which is being criticized as genocide and ethnic cleansing worldwide.

Although current drone strikes may not directly threaten oil supply, they have indirect effects. If drone strikes persist and Russian oil production declines, countries heavily dependent on Russian supply will need to find alternative sources. This shift could increase pressure on refineries, leading to higher prices. JPMorgan predicts that gas prices could reach $4 per gallon by next month, posing a significant concern for the Biden administration, especially considering the upcoming elections.