The latest Bitcoin halving has stirred up a whirlwind of excitement and uncertainty in the world of cryptocurrency. This event could trigger a significant supply shortage due to the surge in demand and the reduction in the supply of Bitcoin. The anticipated bull run is fueled by the growing interest from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, options trading, and large wirehouses, as well as the potential launch of ETFs in Hong Kong and other regions.

The Demand-Supply Imbalance

The scarcity of Bitcoin is expected to intensify as the supply entering the market has drastically decreased. This imbalance between supply and demand could lead to a massive supply shock, resulting in a potential price surge.

The Bearish Outlook

However, the halving event could also have a negative impact on Bitcoin miners' revenue, potentially causing a decline in the hash rate. This could lead to a decrease in the number of profitable miners, which could further affect the network's security.

Offsetting Revenue Decline

There are two possible ways to counteract the revenue decline. The first is through the price of Bitcoin. If the price doubles, it could offset the impact of the halving. However, a decline in Bitcoin's price could exacerbate the miners' distress.

The second method is through transaction fees. There is optimism here, with projects like Ordinals and Runes adding value to normal transactions. However, new products like ETFs are facilitating a lot of Bitcoin trading and investment without many on-chain transactions.

The Future of Bitcoin

The future of Bitcoin is uncertain, and it could go either way. If the bullish scenario unfolds, the surge in demand from ETFs could create sustained momentum and attract more interest and adoption. On the other hand, if the bearish scenario unfolds, a price drop could lead to selling pressure from ETFs and lower transaction fees. This, coupled with reduced mining rewards, could result in fewer miners maintaining the network's security.

In other news, Avraham Eisenberg, the accused mastermind behind the $110 million exploit of Mango Markets, has been found guilty of commodities fraud, commodities manipulation, and wire fraud. His sentencing is scheduled for July 29.

Tether has expanded its USDT stablecoin to the TON blockchain, allowing Telegram's 900 million monthly active users to send the stablecoin to other users. Telegram has also made USDT transactions free until the end of June.

Lastly, Hong Kong has approved the applications of several spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds. Asset managers in Hong Kong, including units of China Asset Management and Harvest Global, may launch their spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as early as later this month. However, predictions for potential inflows for these ETFs remain conservative, with estimates being lower than $500 million.