The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, happening on the 19th of April (2 days away), is generating significant attention and anticipation among investors and analysts alike. Bybit recently released a report detailing what to expect before and after this event.

Bybit's analysis suggests that post-halving, Bitcoin will become twice as rare as gold. This claim is supported by the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which measures the scarcity of an asset by dividing its circulating supply by its annual production. Currently, Bitcoin's S2F ratio stands at 56, compared to gold's 60. After the halving, this ratio is projected to double to 112, reinforcing Bitcoin's position as a highly scarce asset.

Supply Squeeze Post-Halving: A Complex Cycle

Halving events slow down Bitcoin production, reducing its supply rate. Bybit predicts a supply squeeze post-halving, exacerbated by the fact that Bitcoin is already showing early signs of a short squeeze. The BTC supply for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mainly comes from centralized exchanges. As mining rewards decrease and investors hold onto their assets, the sell-side supply flowing into exchanges is expected to decline.

Bybit estimates that with daily ETF inflows of $500 million, approximately 7,142 BTC will leave exchange reserves daily. This suggests that centralized exchange reserves could be depleted within nine months after the halving, leading to a further supply crunch.

Price Implications: A Surge or a Steady Climb?

Given these supply dynamics, Bybit suggests that Bitcoin's price could continue its upward trajectory before and after the halving. This supply squeeze could propel Bitcoin's price to new record highs. However, analysts view this halving cycle as complex and remain uncertain about its exact impact, especially since Bitcoin has already reached new highs recently. Some believe that the post-halving rally might be less significant than previous cycles.

Demand-Driven Post-Halving Surge

Despite the uncertainties surrounding the price impact, market experts are optimistic about demand driving the post-halving surge. As spot Bitcoin ETFs realize their full potential, demand is expected to increase, potentially offsetting any supply-induced price volatility.

In conclusion, the upcoming Bitcoin halving is set to make Bitcoin even scarcer, potentially leading to a supply squeeze that could drive prices higher. While the exact impact remains uncertain, the underlying scarcity and increasing demand for Bitcoin suggest that the digital asset could continue to gain momentum in the post-halving period.