VanEck predicts Ethereum (ETH) will be worth around $22,000 by 2030, according to a detailed analysis released on June 5.

Led by Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Digital Assets Research team suggests Ethereum's strong growth potential within both traditional and crypto-focused portfolios.

The analysis credits this optimistic forecast to Ethereum’s role as a high-growth, internet-native commercial system poised to disrupt traditional financial sectors and Big Tech.

The report highlights Ethereum’s large user base and economic activity, supporting approximately 20 million monthly active users, $4 trillion in annual settlement value, and overseeing $308 billion in digital assets.

$2 trillion market cap

VanEck’s valuation model for ETH is based on a projection of $66 billion in free cash flows by 2030, with a 33x valuation multiple on those cash flows.

The model considers Ethereum’s potential to disrupt finance, marketing, infrastructure, and artificial intelligence (AI).

The report suggests that if Ethereum continues to lead among smart contract platforms, it could generate $66 billion in free cash flow for token holders, supporting a $2.2 trillion market capitalization and a $22,000 price per ETH by 2030.

Revolutionary asset

VanEck described ETH as a revolutionary asset with few parallels in traditional finance, likening it to "digital oil," programmable money, and a yield-bearing commodity.

ETH is also seen as an internet reserve currency, pricing activity and assets within Ethereum’s $1 billion ecosystem and connecting blockchains.

The report notes that Ethereum generated $3.4 billion in revenue over the past year, outperforming some web2 apps like Etsy, Twitch, and Roblox, with 20 million monthly active users exceeding those of Instacart, Robinhood, and Vrbo.

VanEck highlighted ETH’s cost-saving features, improved interconnectivity for social applications, potential to share earnings with users, and foundation for AI applications.

Investment risks

Despite the positive outlook, the report acknowledges several risks associated with investing in ETH.

One major risk is Ethereum’s reliance on speculative activities, which could lead to significant downside if market sentiment shifts.

Regulatory changes also pose a risk, potentially classifying ETH as a security and imposing strict legal requirements on Ethereum-based businesses. Emerging technologies like Solana present competitive threats.

Additionally, government actions to control non-sovereign financial systems could negatively impact Ethereum’s growth prospects.