Cardano’s price experienced a surge on August 21, reaching resistance at approximately $0.37, but it has since struggled to gain further momentum. The price action has largely stagnated at this level, as bullish efforts were met with resistance. Currently, trader sentiment appears split—some are questioning if the recent hype is fading, while others speculate that a larger move might be underway. Adding to the intrigue, the Cardano X community is abuzz with rumors of a new Pump.fun derivative launch on the network. Could this be the catalyst needed for ADA to push towards the $0.50 mark within the next two weeks?

Pump.fun Derivative: A Potential Game Changer for ADA?

In the past 24 hours, Cardano's price has seen minimal movement, dipping just 1.1% to $0.3715, causing it to slip two ranks behind Tron (TRX) and Dogecoin (DOGE), after briefly entering the top 10. Although the asset hasn’t suffered a major downturn, it remains at a critical juncture.

Rumours are circulating that a Pump.fun derivative could be coming to the Cardano network, sparking hope among investors. Speculation points to three projects working on launching a derivative of the Solana-based token-launching platform, with Snek.fun from the Snek (SNEK) team being the most anticipated. Snek (SNEK) is the largest meme coin on the Cardano network, and its involvement could stir renewed interest and drive price action, though no official launch date has been confirmed.

Bearish Signals Persist Amid Whale Activity and Market Uncertainty

cardano transaction volume

On-chain analysis highlights some bearish signals for Cardano. As anticipation builds around the potential Snek.fun launch, it remains to be seen if this news can shift the current market sentiment. Data from Santiment shows a bearish divergence between price and volume—ADA’s price rose between August 16 and 22 while transaction volumes declined, indicating a weak buying momentum that may not be sustained.

large transaction volume

Additionally, IntoTheBlock's large transaction volume metric indicates that whale activity increased from August 18 to 22, but large holder netflow dropped from August 21 to 22. This suggests that whales could be offloading their holdings cautiously in anticipation of a price dip.

Futures traders also seem uncertain, with Coinglass data showing nearly equal ADA short and long positions, though shorts slightly outnumber longs, signaling a mildly bearish sentiment. ADA's open interest (OI) increased by 0.7% over the last 24 hours, while the price dropped by 1.1%, suggesting that traders are leaning towards opening shorts, which could exert additional downward pressure on the price.

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ADA Price Analysis: What Needs to Happen for a Rebound to $0.50?

Cardano Price Prediction

Cardano's price remains in a broader downtrend as it trades below the 200-day EMA, with recent price action showing indecision near the 50-day EMA ($0.3773). A decisive break above this level could open the door to the next resistance at $0.4368, a potential 19.74% gain from the current price.

Technical indicators present mixed signals; the MACD line is below the signal line, indicating weak bullish momentum, though the histogram is beginning to show positive changes, suggesting that the downtrend may be losing steam. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.08, indicating a slight inflow of capital—a positive sign, though not strong enough to confirm a significant move upward.

Cardano's Path to $0.50: Key Levels to Watch

To make a convincing move toward $0.50, ADA needs to overcome the $0.3773 resistance level and sustain momentum. Failure to do so could signal market weakness, potentially pushing the price down to $0.3145, which would invalidate any near-term bullish scenario. As speculation builds around the potential impact of a Pump.fun derivative, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Cardano can break out of its current stagnation and make a run towards $0.50.