Despite a potential breakout, XRP’s price remains closely tied to developments in the ongoing lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple. Investors are increasingly betting on an upward movement in the XRP token's price, driven by rising open interest (OI).

Traders Increasingly Betting on XRP Price to Rise

Market analysis by verified CryptoQuant author Woominkyu indicates that more traders are betting on XRP's price to rise, as evidenced by the jump in open interest. In a June 18 research report, Woominkyu noted, "This trend suggests that as open interest rises alongside price, investors are opening more positions with the expectation of XRP's price increase. This heightened interest indicates that more trading activity is occurring with XRP."

However, Woominkyu also cautioned that increased open interest could lead to higher price volatility. He stated, "As open interest increases along with the price, this could reflect investor expectations and actions, but it could also bring about sudden market fluctuations, so caution is necessary."

XRP's price has been in a downtrend since the beginning of the year, down over 19% year-to-date (YTD), trading at around $0.49 according to Binance data. The rise in open interest since June 11 suggests that expectations of a price breakout may be related to developments in Ripple’s case against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

On June 13, Ripple requested a penalty of "no more than $10 million"—far lower than the regulator’s proposed $876.3 million civil penalty—citing the SEC’s settlement with Terraform Labs. The SEC argued against this in a June 14 letter to Judge Torres, stating, "That low of a penalty would not satisfy the purposes of the civil penalty statutes."

A potential settlement would be a relief for investors, given that the legal battle has been ongoing since 2020 when the SEC claimed Ripple sold unregistered securities.

Is XRP’s Price on Track for a Breakout?

XRP could be on track for a price breakout by the end of June, based on key technical chart formations. On the daily chart, XRP has formed a descending triangle, a pattern that could signal a potential price breakout as the wedges of the triangle narrow. This could spark an XRP price rally if it holds above the $0.47 support mark.

Additionally, XRP fractals hint at a potential breakout if the price chart repeats patterns similar to those from February 2024, when XRP broke out of an ascending triangle pattern. Fractal patterns help technical traders identify key support and resistance levels and potential trend reversals based on historical data.

Traders must also consider potential negative news related to the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, which could negatively impact the market and possibly push XRP’s price below its current support level.